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Count on much more of the identical if Trump wins a second time period

Count on to see much more of the identical if there is a second Trump administration.

President Donald Trump has persistently pointed to tax cuts and regulatory reduction as key successes of his first 4 years in workplace. He has repeatedly pushed for the end of the Obama-era health law however has but to ship a plan to exchange it. And he has spent most of this yr defending his response to the coronavirus pandemic whereas combating brazenly with scientists and medical specialists about vaccines, therapies and extra.

If he will get one other 4 years in workplace, there is no indication of any huge coverage shift.

A glimpse at how a second Trump time period would possibly look:

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ECONOMY, TAXES AND THE DEBT

Low unemployment and a hovering inventory market have been Trump’s calling playing cards earlier than the pandemic. Whereas the inventory market clawed its manner again after cratering within the early weeks of the disaster, unemployment stands at 7.9%, and the almost 10 million jobs that stay misplaced for the reason that pandemic started exceed the quantity that the nation shed throughout your entire 2008-09 Nice Recession.

And by Friday, Wall Avenue had closed out another punishing week with the S&P 500 posting its first back-to-back month-to-month loss for the reason that pandemic first gripped the financial system in March. A lot of the market’s focus has been on what’s to come back for the financial system when coronavirus counts are rising at troubling charges throughout Europe and america.

Trump has predicted that the U.S. financial system will rebound in late 2020 and take off like a “rocket ship” in 2021. He guarantees that a coronavirus vaccine or efficient therapeutics will quickly be obtainable, permitting life to get again to regular. His push for a payroll tax lower over the summer season was thwarted by stiff bipartisan opposition. However profitable a second time period — and a mandate from voters — might assist him resurrect the thought.

An evaluation from the Committee for a Accountable Federal Funds estimates that Trump’s plan would improve the debt by about $5 trillion over 10 years. That’s on high of the $13 trillion in deficits the nation is already anticipated to run up throughout that point.

The nationwide debt now stands at greater than $20 trillion.

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CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC

Trump insists that the nation is “rounding the nook” on the pandemic and has stepped up calls on Democratic governors to raise coronavirus restrictions of their states. However Trump’s sunny outlook belies the bottom reality in lots of states — together with a number of crucial to his path to 270 Electoral School votes — which have seen a surge in the virus.

The president has usually disputed medical experts in his personal administration, amongst them infectious illness knowledgeable Dr. Anthony Fauci, on key points surrounding the virus, together with the timing of a vaccine, the necessity for social distancing and the significance of masks to comprise the virus. His marketing campaign rallies have been crammed with folks gathered lower than 6 ft aside with out masks. His announcement of the nomination of Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court was broadly regarded to be a super spreader event after he and a number of other different folks in attendance have been identified with the virus.

Trump spent three days at Walter Reed Nationwide Medical Middle after his diagnosis. One of many medication he obtained, remdesivir, has since been accepted by the Meals and Drug Administration for therapy of COVID-19.

Trump additionally says he’s “fairly rattling sure” that vaccines and new therapies for the virus are coming within the not-so-distant future. Scientists are extra cautious concerning the timing.

Congress handed and Trump signed into regulation a greater than $2 trillion coronavirus reduction package deal earlier this yr, however the two sides have been unable to agree on a further assist package deal.

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HEALTH CARE

As a candidate for the White Home, Trump promised that he would “instantly” substitute former President Barack Obama’s well being care regulation with a plan of his personal that would supply “insurance coverage for everyone” with decrease prices. People are nonetheless ready for a pan that Trump has been teasing for a lot of months.

He could also be relying on the Supreme Courtroom, which is scheduled to hear a case challenging “Obamacare” quickly after the election. The courtroom now has a strong conservative majority with the confirmation of Barrett as a justice.

Trump officers say the administration has made strides by championing transparency on hospital prices, pursuing a spread of actions to curb prescription drug prices and increasing lower-cost medical health insurance options for small companies and people. However these incremental steps fall far in need of the sweeping adjustments he promised.

The variety of uninsured folks has gone up on Trump’s watch, from 27.6 million folks below age 65 in 2017 to 29.2 million final yr, in line with the nonpartisan Kaiser Household Basis. There are not any strong statistics on uninsured People this yr, after hundreds of thousands misplaced job-related protection within the pandemic.

On pharmaceuticals, Trump got here into workplace promising change so People would see the decrease prices widespread in different economically superior international locations. However he backed away from a 2016 marketing campaign promise to authorize Medicare to barter costs. And an enormous, bipartisan cope with Congress to cut back prices for Medicare recipients and restrain worth will increase eluded him.

His administration did attain a narrower, but vital settlement with drug corporations and insurers to restrict out-of-pocket costs for insulin for seniors to $35 a month. A collection of rules to attempt to curb drug prices stays a piece in progress.

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IMMIGRATION

Trump labored by his first time period to sharply curtail each authorized and unlawful immigration. Count on that to proceed if he wins a second time period.

One in all his high priorities could be to make use of agreements with Central American governments as fashions to get international locations around the globe to discipline asylum claims from folks searching for refuge in america, a high adviser, Stephen Miller, lately advised The Related Press. He mentioned the agreements would assist cease “asylum fraud, asylum purchasing and asylum abuse on a worldwide scale.”

Miller additionally forecast a broader offensive towards so-called “sanctuary” jurisdictions that restrict cooperation with federal immigration authorities, saying the administration would use its “full energy, sources and authority.” He vowed extra efforts towards authorized immigration “based mostly on advantage.”

Trump’s pledge to construct a wall alongside the usborder with Mexico was an indicator of his first presidential marketing campaign and 4 years in workplace. Trump is anticipated to proceed to trumpet progress after having accomplished almost 400 miles of wall development, although most of that changed current smaller limitations.

Trump has but to stipulate second-term immigration priorities intimately, although he has brazenly toyed with making an attempt to repeal a constitutional proper to citizenship for anybody born in america.

His administration has lengthy pursued a zero-tolerance coverage to crack down on unlawful immigration, and 1000’s of children were separated from their parents after crossing the border illegally. The administration was roundly criticized for its actions.

Administration officers additionally sought to limit authorized immigration, together with greater charges and elevated scrutiny for folks searching for to legally to migrate to the U.S. The administration slashed the number of refugees allowed within the nation by about three-quarters to its lowest stage in a long time.

Trump has additionally sought to finish Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals, or DACA, a program that allowed folks delivered to america illegally as youngsters to stay as authorized residents, although his effort was halted, a minimum of quickly, by the courts.

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FOREIGN POLICY AND NATIONAL SECURITY

Trump’s overseas coverage facilities on his mantra of “America First,” however within the months main as much as the election, he engaged in diplomacy.

The Trump administration scored an enormous win in current weeks by nudging three Arab states — Bahrain, Sudan and the United Arab Emirates — to normalize relations with Israel. Trump officers additionally brokered an economic cooperation agreement between Serbia and Kosovo, bitter foes within the Balkan wars.

He counts as one other main achievement his efforts to persuade extra NATO members to satisfy their pledge to spend 2% of their gross home product on protection.

Trump additionally pulled the U.S. out of the Iran nuclear deal, saying it was one-sided in favor of Iran. He’s introduced that the U.S. is withdrawing from the intermediate-range nuclear missile treaty with Russia and the Open Skies Treaty, which allows 30-plus nations to conduct commentary flights over one another’s territory. He later mentioned he would possibly reconsider pulling out of that treaty.

The president has decreased to about 3,000 the number of troops in Iraq. The U.S. plans to cut back the variety of troops in Afghanistan to a minimum of 4,500 in November, though Trump desires all of them withdrawn by the tip of the yr. He additionally counts his engagement with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un as a overseas coverage victory, but he’s been unable to prod Kim to surrender his nuclear program.

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PUBLIC HEALTH AND ENVIRONMENT

A Trump second time period would start to see a U.S. reworked by the scores of public well being and setting rollbacks in Trump’s first time period, when the administration weakened protections in landmark air pollution legal guidelines that had stood for a half-century.

Trump’s largest environmental rollbacks embrace eradicating federal protections for hundreds of thousands of miles of wetlands and waterways. Meaning mining corporations and different industries might be freer to dump waste into the delicate habitats or destroy them outright, eradicating buffers towards storms and flooding and making it more durable for cities downstream to scrub public water provides, environmental teams say.

One other main rollback means neighborhoods nationwide will discover themselves having much less say about highways or different huge initiatives tearing by their communities. Different rollbacks enacted in Trump’s first time period — in rules starting from endangered species to grease and gasoline and mining in federal wilderness to energy plant air pollution to water-thrifty dishwashers — will take impact.

On local weather change, Trump’s withdrawal of america from the Paris world local weather accord would change into official Nov. 4, the day after the presidential election. Trump remains to be combating California and different Western states over his plans to ease future automobile mileage requirements, undoing one other legacy local weather effort of the Obama administration.

A Supreme Courtroom made extra conservative by Trump’s appointments will determine pending courtroom challenges by states and environmental teams to lots of the rollbacks.

The Trump administration says it desires to deal with serving to minority communities which can be disproportionately harmed by polluting industries in a second time period. Environmental teams level to the administration’s efforts to slash funding for such applications, and name it an empty election-year promise.

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EDUCATION

Trump believes {that a} key to financial restoration from the virus is fully reopening schools, although People are cautious. Solely about 1 in 10 suppose day care facilities, preschools or Ok-12 colleges ought to open this fall with out restrictions, in line with a current ballot by The Related Press-NORC Middle for Public Affairs.

He’s calling for the growth of constitution colleges and school choice programs, together with a proposed tax credit score for individuals who contribute to scholarships sending college students to personal colleges and different schooling choices. Beneath his watch, the federal authorities has additionally elevated funding for historically Black colleges and universities — an effort he usually cites as one of many issues he has achieved for Black People.

Trump steadily rails towards what he has described as “radical left indoctrination” in colleges. He’s pledging to create a fee to advertise “patriotic education” in colleges. Amid complaints that conservative voices are stifled on faculty campuses, he additionally sought to cut federal funding to high schools that don’t defend speech rights.

Trump’s administration has revoked a number of Obama-era initiatives, together with steerage supposed to curb racial disparities in class self-discipline and a rule that sought to chop federal funding to for-profit faculties that left college students with heavy debt.

The Schooling Division below Trump has additionally created guidelines telling colleges and universities how to reply to sexual misconduct, with extra safety for the accused.

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ABORTION

Earlier than changing into a presidential candidate, Trump described himself as a powerful abortion-rights proponent. However after coming to Washington, he pushed for overturning Roe v. Wade, the Supreme Courtroom ruling that 47 years in the past established a constitutional proper to abortion.

Anti-abortion teams hope the addition of Barrett to the Supreme Courtroom will present a majority to overturn Roe. Barrett has declined to characterize Roe as a “super-precedent” that should not be overturned, though she says that she units her private views apart when weighing instances.

Trump additionally has barred federally funded household planning clinics from referring ladies for abortions. He helps the Hyde Modification, a collection of federal legal guidelines that ban the usage of taxpayer cash to pay for abortions besides in instances of rape or incest or to save lots of the girl’ s life.

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SOCIAL SECURITY

Even earlier than the coronavirus shutdown despatched the financial system on a curler coaster journey, authorities specialists estimated that Social Safety could be unable to pay full advantages beginning in 2035. This system’s insolvency date is now seemingly nearer than that, as a result of layoffs have lower into Social Safety tax collections from employees and employers.

Trump stored his promise to not lower Social Safety advantages, however this summer season he despatched complicated alerts with a plan to quickly suspend collection of certain taxes that fund this system. Whereas the White Home workers mentioned it was a restricted measure that might don’t have any lasting impression, Trump stored hinting to reporters that he had a lot larger tax cuts in thoughts. Early within the yr, he advised an interviewer he wished to sort out “entitlements,” or profit applications, in a second time period.

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GUNS

Trump has flirted at occasions with tighter gun legal guidelines. After the Parkland school shooting in Florida two years in the past, Trump chided Republican lawmakers for being too “scared” of the Nationwide Rifle Affiliation to tighten gun legal guidelines. And after back-to-back mass shootings in Ohio and Texas in 2019, he embraced requires “strong background checks.” He backpedaled shortly in every occasion.

Within the marketing campaign, the president has repeatedly promised to “defend our Second Modification.” The NRA’s political motion committee has endorsed Trump.

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VETERANS

Trump steadily touts an expanded program on the Division of Veterans Affairs handed by Congress in 2018 that enables veterans to decide on a personal doctor outdoors of the government-run VA system and nonetheless obtain taxpayer-paid medical care.

This system, first handed as a brief measure through the Obama administration, was spurred by a 2014 scandal through which veterans died whereas ready months for appointments on the Phoenix VA medical middle. Trump helps giving veterans vast entry to private-sector care if they’re dissatisfied with VA therapy, and he has advised he might situation extra rules in a second time period that may make it even simpler.

Trump has boosted telehealth services at the VA and broadly guarantees an improved U.S. financial system in a second time period that may cut back veterans’ unemployment. He created a federal activity power final yr to deal with veterans suicide. In October, he signed into regulation a bipartisan invoice that creates a brand new three-digit 988 phone line — just like 911 — that might be reserved for psychological well being emergencies. It turns into lively in fall 2021.

About 20 veterans die by suicide every day, a price mainly unchanged through the Trump administration.

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TRADE

Trump views the signing of two main commerce offers — an updated pact with Mexico and Canada and the primary part of a China agreement — as signature achievements. The U.S. and China signed in January, lower than two months earlier than the pandemic put an unlimited pressure on U.S.-China relations. Trump says the primary part would result in China shopping for roughly $200 billion over two years in U.S. agricultural merchandise, power and different American merchandise.

In return, the U.S. canceled or decreased tariffs on an array of China imports. To date, China is considerably behind in assembly its buying commitments, in line with monitoring from the Peterson Institute for Worldwide Economics.

The second part of the deal is anticipated to deal with harder points between the international locations, together with Trump’s want to get China to cease subsidizing its state-owned enterprises. However for Trump, who has come to steadily check with the coronavirus because the “China virus,” it stays to be seen whether or not he’ll be capable to successfully reengage Beijing on commerce. Trump lately mentioned he’s “not ” in speaking to China.

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Related Press writers Kevin Freking, Ricardo Alonso-Zaldivar, Ben Fox, Deb Riechmann, Collin Binkley and Hope Yen contributed to this report.

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